黄金闪崩4%、白银暴跌11%！市场踩踏真相曝光，机构紧急发声：有色短期进入降波交易，但上游矿企赚疯了！

Market Volatility - The global precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with gold prices dropping by 4.1% and silver plunging by 11% on February 12, 2026 [1] - This was not the first instance of severe fluctuations in 2026, as gold prices fell nearly 10% and silver prices dropped 27.7% on January 29, marking the largest single-day decline in decades [3] Market Drivers - A key factor behind the recent declines is the sudden shift in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, particularly following the nomination of Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish stance, as a candidate for the next Fed chair [3] - Concerns arose that the Fed's monetary discipline could undermine the previous belief that the Fed would need to support the economy through significant fiscal deficits, thereby diminishing gold's role as a hedge against dollar credit risk [3] Trading Dynamics - The trading structure contributed to the volatility, as speculative buying and high leverage positions accumulated during previous price surges created a crowded market [4] - Once prices breached critical technical levels, automated stop-loss orders and forced selling from leveraged ETFs triggered a liquidity crunch, leading to a self-reinforcing downward spiral in prices [4] Market Sentiment - Recent trading in gold and silver has been largely driven by market sentiment and momentum, rather than fundamental changes [6] - Analysts from various firms, including Industrial Securities, suggest that while short-term volatility may increase, the long-term upward trend for precious metals remains intact due to supportive fundamentals in the latter part of the first quarter [6] Industry Outlook - The current cycle for non-ferrous metals is distinct from previous ones, driven by factors such as de-globalization and the restructuring of overseas manufacturing, which may lead to a more prolonged market trend [8] - The non-ferrous metals sector is undergoing a transformation, becoming a core component of energy transition and digital infrastructure, rather than merely reflecting economic cycles [8] Company Performance - Mining companies have reported impressive earnings, with Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum expected to achieve net profits of 52 billion and 20.8 billion respectively, marking significant year-on-year growth [8][9] - The entire non-ferrous metals industry achieved a record profit total of 528.45 billion in 2025, reflecting a 25.6% year-on-year increase [9] Price Transmission - The transmission of price increases from upstream mining companies to metal raw materials is relatively smooth, benefiting mining firms when metal prices rise [11] - However, challenges remain in transmitting price increases through the midstream processing and downstream product stages [11] Investment Tools - For investors looking to enter the sector, the non-ferrous mining ETF (159690) is a widely recognized tool that focuses on the upstream mining segment, featuring leading companies such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [11][12] - The ETF has a significant concentration in strategic metals, with copper, gold, and aluminum making up over 58% of its holdings, and has shown a cumulative increase of 279.71% over the past decade [12]