马年大类资产配置的三大方向｜策马点金

Group 1 - The core logic for asset allocation in 2026 is the synchronized resonance of the economic and policy cycles between China and the United States, providing support for risk assets [2][3] - China's "loose fiscal + loose monetary" policy combined with the U.S. dual easing of fiscal and monetary policy creates a favorable environment for global financial stability, enhancing risk appetite [2][3] - The U.S. is expected to lower interest rates 2-3 times this year, totaling 50-75 basis points, which will contribute to a downward trend in the U.S. dollar index, benefiting non-U.S. assets, particularly Chinese assets [2][3] Group 2 - The weakening of the U.S. dollar index is projected to create a favorable environment for the appreciation of the Chinese yuan, supported by China's systemic and industrial advantages [3] - The demand for industrial products such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals is expected to surge due to AI infrastructure and new energy, while supply remains constrained due to past capital expenditure shortages [3] - The A-share market is anticipated to exhibit a "structural slow bull" trend, driven by a favorable macro environment and the transition from "old economy" to "new economy" sectors [3][4] Group 3 - The absolute upside potential of stock indices remains uncertain, with more returns expected from alpha generation through selective investment rather than simple index betting [4] - Futures can serve as both a risk management tool and a means for value appreciation, allowing investors to hedge risks and optimize existing assets [4][5] - Utilizing futures can enhance cash flow and improve portfolio returns by taking advantage of the low correlation between commodities and traditional financial assets [5]