Where Will NuScale Power Stock Be in 5 Years?

Core Viewpoint - NuScale Power, a small modular reactor company, has seen its stock decline 70% from its peak of $57 per share, currently trading at $14.29, amidst significant volatility in the nuclear energy sector [1][3]. Company Overview - NuScale Power is in the early stages of establishing its business and operating model, which is expected to lead to substantial price fluctuations in the coming years [2]. - The company has a market capitalization of $4.0 billion and a gross margin of 64.95% [3]. Key Projects and Partnerships - The RoPower project in Romania is NuScale's only active major project, aiming to deploy six NuScale Power Modules, contingent on the successful testing of a 77MW reactor [5]. - The Final Investment Decision (FID) for the RoPower project has been approved, but the operational timeline has been pushed back to at least July 2033 from the original 2030 target [6]. - NuScale has a non-binding MOU with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) to develop up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of capacity, which has incurred significant financial liabilities, including a $495 million expense in Q3 [7]. Manufacturing and Supply Chain Challenges - The company needs to establish a manufacturing supply chain to produce its Power Modules at scale, which will require substantial capital investment [9]. - Management has indicated that total payments for large projects could exceed billions of dollars before operations commence [9]. Competitive Landscape - NuScale faces competition from both emerging companies like Oklo, which uses liquid-metal cooling and recycled nuclear fuel, and established players like GE Vernova, which has a more advanced project with TVA [10]. - The company must secure firm commitments for its technology and will take several years to reach commercial operations, making it a risky investment at this stage [11].