日本2025年四季度GDP年化季率0.2%不及预期 扭转前季萎缩但内需疲软 恩格尔系数创44年新高

Group 1 - Japan's economy barely achieved growth in Q4 2025, reversing the previous quarter's deep contraction, with a preliminary annualized GDP growth rate of 0.2%, below economists' median expectation of 1.6% [1] - Private residential investment saw a quarter-on-quarter actual growth of 4.8%, aligning with market expectations, while consumer spending, the largest component of GDP, only grew by 0.1%, highlighting the weakness in domestic demand [1] - The inflation rate in Japan has remained above the central bank's 2% target for four consecutive years, coupled with a 1.3% year-on-year decline in real income in 2025, further suppressing domestic consumption [1] Group 2 - Corporate investment in Q4 only grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while public demand decreased by 0.2%, indicating that the large supplementary budget passed in late November had not yet boosted public spending [2] - The weak economic performance may prompt the Japanese government to implement more fiscal easing policies, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida potentially introducing a supplementary budget in the first half of FY2026 and advancing plans to suspend the food consumption tax [2] - Despite the lack of strong support for economic recovery, market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike within the year remain unchanged, as the economy continues to face long-term structural challenges such as aging population and insufficient domestic demand [2]