铜短缺警报纯属虚惊？三大交易所库存集体飙升

Core Viewpoint - Despite warnings of an impending copper shortage as prices soar to historical highs, the global copper resources are not depleted [1] Group 1: Global Copper Inventory - The copper inventory held by the three major metal exchanges has surpassed 1.1 million tons for the first time since early 2003 [2] - Since the beginning of January, global exchange copper inventories have surged by 300,000 tons, indicating that the price surge has dampened manufacturing demand [3] - The CME copper inventory saw its first net decrease since late October last year, suggesting a halt in the previous accumulation trend [5] Group 2: U.S. Copper Market Dynamics - The U.S. refined copper imports reached 1.45 million tons in the first 11 months of 2025, an increase of over 600,000 tons year-on-year [7] - The CME's copper inventory rose from 85,000 tons at the start of 2025 to 536,000 tons, but this momentum is now slowing [7] - The copper premium in the U.S. has evaporated as the market reassesses the likelihood of import tariffs, leading to a high level of copper inventory [7] Group 3: Chinese Copper Inventory Trends - SHFE copper inventory has increased by 127,000 tons since January, reaching 272,475 tons, despite a drop in import demand indicators [8] - China appears to have sufficient surplus copper to replenish LME inventories [9] Group 4: Price Signals and Market Sentiment - As of late January, 70% of LME registered copper was from Chinese brands, with LME registered inventory rising by 40% to 203,875 tons [11] - The current copper price nearing the historical high of $13,618 per ton contrasts sharply with rising inventories and loosening price spreads [12] - The bullish sentiment around copper is based on the assumption of future supply shortages, which has not yet materialized as global inventories continue to rise [12]