BUD APAC(HK:01876) 智通财经网·2026-02-16 02:53Core Viewpoint - UBS has slightly reduced the target price for Budweiser APAC (01876) from HKD 8.75 to HKD 8.6 while maintaining a "Buy" rating, citing lower-than-expected revenue and normalized EBITDA forecasts for 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Budweiser APAC's revenue and normalized EBITDA for 2025 are projected to decline by 6.1% and 9.8% year-on-year, reaching USD 5.764 billion and USD 1.588 billion, respectively, which is below market expectations [1] - For Q4 2025, revenue and normalized EBITDA are expected to decrease by 4.2% and 24.7% year-on-year, amounting to USD 1.073 billion and USD 167 million, respectively [1] - The company's normalized EBITDA margin contracted by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in gross margin and an increase in the ratio of selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) [1] Group 2: Net Profit and Non-Recurring Items - The net profit for the period was USD 489 million, impacted by a non-recurring item related to a customs audit claim and tax issues in South Korea, which is considered a one-time factor [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2026 to 2028 have been increased by 2% to 3%, reflecting expectations of RMB appreciation; however, a slowdown in sales recovery in the Chinese market is anticipated, potentially delaying until the second half of 2026 [1] - EBITDA forecasts for 2026 to 2028 have been reduced by 6% to 7% to account for operational deleveraging and increased business investments, leading to a decrease in EBITDA margin by 2.5 to 2.8 percentage points [1]