Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-16 03:17Core Viewpoint - Spring Medical (01858) has announced a significant increase in its expected net profit for the fiscal year 2025, with projections indicating a rise of 96.01% to 130.41% year-on-year, driven by improvements in its core business and international expansion efforts [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 245 million to 288 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 230 million to 270 million yuan, reflecting increases of 96.01% to 130.41% and 142.80% to 185.11% respectively [1][4]. - In Q1 of the previous year, Spring Medical reported a revenue of 230 million yuan, marking a 3.6% increase, and a net profit of 58 million yuan, up 5.2% [7]. - By Q3 of the previous year, the company achieved a revenue of 756 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 48.75%, and a net profit of 192 million yuan, a significant increase of 213.21% [7]. Market Reaction - Despite the positive earnings forecast, the market response was muted, with the stock price dropping by 2.87% the day after the announcement, and continuing to decline to a new low of 13.47 HKD by February 12 [4][10]. - The stock has experienced a maximum fluctuation of over 30% since reaching a peak of 20.49 HKD in early November [4]. Strategic Insights - The growth in profits is attributed to the gradual release of growth potential following the inclusion of various product lines in centralized procurement, alongside the company's ongoing international development strategy [5][18]. - The overseas revenue contribution reached 40% in the first half of the previous year, indicating a strong focus on international market expansion [18]. Valuation Perspective - Following a three-month decline in stock price, Spring Medical's overall valuation has fallen below the industry average, with a current PE ratio of 19.12, compared to the industry average of 20.48 [11]. - The stock is considered undervalued, which typically attracts interest from investors looking for quality stocks at lower prices [11][13]. Investor Behavior - Recent data indicates a shift in the behavior of Hong Kong Stock Connect funds, which have transitioned from being net buyers to net sellers of Spring Medical shares [13][15]. - The holding ratio of Hong Kong Stock Connect funds peaked at 47.77% but has since dropped to 43.16%, reflecting a change in investment strategy towards trend-based trading [15][18].