玉渊谭天：哪些人民币资产值得持有

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) has reached its highest level in 33 months, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards Chinese assets, moving from "whether to allocate RMB assets" to "which Chinese assets are worth holding" [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and RMB Positioning - The market's tone towards China has changed, with international institutions now discussing which Chinese assets to hold rather than whether to invest in RMB assets [1][3]. - The RMB is transitioning from a transactional currency to an asset currency, with approximately 30% of China's goods trade and over half of its cross-border transactions now settled in RMB [1][12]. Group 2: External Environment and USD Weakness - The depreciation of the USD index since 2025, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and rising fiscal deficits, has created favorable conditions for the RMB to strengthen [4][5]. - The RMB's appreciation coincided with the escalation of US-China trade tensions, where China's firm response shifted market expectations from doubt to trust in the Chinese economy [7][8]. Group 3: Factors Supporting RMB Appreciation - Several factors support the RMB's appreciation: macroeconomic policies have been prepared for external shocks, the lagging effect of exchange rate transmission, and enhanced industrial competitiveness [9][10][11]. - The demand for RMB is increasing, particularly in cross-border trade settlements, with significant growth in RMB usage in trade with ASEAN and African countries [16][19]. Group 4: RMB as an Investment Asset - The total value of RMB assets held by foreign investors reached 10.42 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, marking a nearly 43-month high, with foreign holdings of Chinese stocks exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan [19]. - The issuance of RMB-denominated bonds, such as "dim sum bonds" and "panda bonds," is increasing, indicating a broader acceptance of RMB in international financing [20][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The RMB is increasingly viewed as a currency that can be traded, allocated, and financed, reflecting a significant shift in its international status [25].