中金：予智谱 跑赢行业评级 目标价688港元

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC is optimistic about Zhiyu (02513) due to its iterative capabilities in foundational models and the realization of value in coding scenarios, assigning an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 688, indicating a 42% upside potential from the current trading level [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Zhiyu was established in 2019, focusing on the development of the GLM series foundational models, enhancing core capabilities in coding, reasoning, and agentic models [2] - The latest foundational model, GLM-5, has achieved state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in multiple benchmark scores and has received widespread acclaim from both domestic and international users [2] Group 2: Revenue Growth and Market Potential - The company is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of over 130% from 2023 to 2027, with API revenue projected to be a major growth driver [3] - By early 2026, the annual recurring revenue (ARR) related to APIs is estimated to approach CNY 600 million, reflecting several times growth compared to the same period last year [3] - The company serves various industries, including internet, software, and semiconductors, focusing on enhancing productivity through model capabilities [3] Group 3: AI Coding Market Opportunity - The total addressable market (TAM) for AI coding is projected to reach a trillion CNY, with Zhiyu positioned to lead in this rapidly evolving sector [4] - The company emphasizes its strengths in coding scenarios, including low hallucination rates, high stability, and strong reasoning and tool usage capabilities, which are expected to maintain its leadership [4] - Revenue projections for Zhiyu from 2025 to 2028 are estimated at CNY 720 million, 1.75 billion, 3.67 billion, and 7.67 billion, respectively, with a CAGR of 120% [4] Group 4: Potential Catalysts - Potential catalysts for growth include the release of new generation models and significant increases in API and coding ARR [5]