欧洲已经寝食难安——四年的数据显示俄罗斯的战争成本正在降低

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant transformation in Russia's military strategy over the past four years, shifting from heavy firepower tactics to a reliance on drones and guided munitions, indicating an increasing capability to sustain warfare [1][15]. Group 1: Military Strategy Changes - Russia's military strategy has evolved from traditional heavy firepower to a consumption warfare model supported by drones and guided munitions [1]. - The shift includes a transition from expensive heavy weapons to more cost-effective high-tech solutions, and from soldier-centric operations to a focus on robots and drones [1]. - The nature of attacks has changed from precision strikes to indiscriminate destructive attacks, raising concerns in Europe about Russia's enhanced ability to maintain warfare [1]. Group 2: Casualty Statistics - Despite an overall decrease in casualty rates, the death toll among Russian forces has significantly increased, with projected casualties rising from 106,000 in 2022 to 430,000 in 2024, before declining to 418,000 in 2025 [3]. - The ratio of Russian military casualties has shifted from approximately 1:3 (killed to wounded) in the early stages of the war to 1:1.3 by 2025, largely due to the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drones [3]. - Ukrainian forces maintain a casualty ratio of 1:5, with some regions reporting even lower ratios, indicating effective protective measures through advanced technology [3]. Group 3: Equipment Losses - Since 2022, Russian forces have lost 9,655 main battle tanks, nearing the total inventory of NATO member states, with further losses expected in the coming years [5]. - The loss of armored vehicles and artillery is severe, with reports indicating that Russian forces have lost at least 9,200 armored vehicles and 35,600 artillery pieces from 2022 to 2025 [8]. - The operational effectiveness of Russian tanks has diminished due to increased drone strikes, leading to a significant reduction in their presence on the battlefield [5][8]. Group 4: Air and Naval Capabilities - Russian air forces have not established air superiority, suffering losses of 434 aircraft and 347 helicopters, while increasing the use of guided munitions significantly [10]. - The Russian Black Sea fleet has faced substantial losses, with approximately 33% of its operational vessels destroyed, severely impacting its naval capabilities [10]. - The reduction in naval power has led to a 30% drop in Russian oil exports, indicating a broader economic impact from military losses [10]. Group 5: Future Projections and Implications - Despite heavy losses, Russia's drone capabilities are expanding, with projections indicating a fivefold increase in long-range drone launches by 2025, potentially reaching 1.02 million by 2026 [13]. - The ongoing conflict poses a dilemma for Europe, as it must choose between fully supporting Ukraine or maintaining the status quo, which could lead to further escalation of the conflict [15]. - The article suggests that without a strategic shift, Europe may face a passive acceptance of an escalating war situation, highlighting the urgency for a reassessment of support for Ukraine [15].