2026年猪价能否迎来周期性反弹？

Core Viewpoint - The overall profitability of the pig industry is expected to decline in 2025 due to fluctuations in the market, with several listed pig companies forecasting significant drops in net profits compared to the previous year [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Muyuan Foods is expected to report a net profit of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.2% to 17.79% year-on-year [1]. - Wens Foodstuff Group anticipates a net profit of 5 billion to 5.5 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 40.73% to 46.12% year-on-year [1]. - New Hope Group forecasts a loss of 1.8 billion to 1.5 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 474 million yuan in the previous year [1]. - Other companies like Tangrenshen and Juxing Agriculture are also expected to see declines in profits from pig farming in 2025 [1]. Group 2: Market Price Trends - In 2025, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) is projected to decrease by approximately 17% compared to 2024, with prices fluctuating from 15-16 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 11-12 yuan/kg in the fourth quarter [1]. - The price of live pigs showed a downward trend throughout 2025, starting from 16.1 yuan/kg in early January and reaching a low of 10.9 yuan/kg by mid-October [2]. Group 3: Supply and Production Capacity - The supply of live pigs is expected to remain ample throughout 2025, prompting authorities to emphasize the need for capacity regulation measures, including the reduction of breeding sows and control of pig weights [6]. - As of the end of Q4 2025, the number of breeding sows was reported at 39.61 million, which is 101.6% of the normal holding capacity, indicating a slight decrease in capacity [7]. - The production efficiency in the pig farming industry has significantly improved, with the number of weaned piglets per sow per year (PSY) increasing to around 26, with some leading companies nearing 29 [7]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Many institutions predict that the supply side may tighten in the second half of 2026, potentially leading to a cyclical rebound in pig prices [7]. - The pig industry may face pressure in the first half of 2026, but this period could also serve as a favorable window for capacity reduction [8]. - The ongoing market dynamics suggest that while there may be a rebound in prices, the extent of this rebound could be limited if capacity reduction is not thorough [9].