重回增长但仍疲软，日本25年四季度GDP年化季率0.2%不及预期，扩张财政政策获支撑

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economic growth in Q4 2025 was below market expectations, with a real GDP growth rate of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, compared to the expected 0.4% and a previous decline of 0.7% [1][2] Economic Performance - Private consumption, which accounts for over half of GDP, only increased by 0.1% in Q4, a significant slowdown from 0.4% in Q3 [2] - Capital expenditure also showed weakness, growing by just 0.2%, far below the expected 0.8% [2] - Exports decreased by 0.3% in Q4, although the decline was less severe than the previous quarter's 1.4% [2] Monetary Policy Outlook - Analysts believe the weak GDP growth is not enough to alter the Bank of Japan's plans for interest rate hikes later this year [3] - Moody's Analytics economist expects the next rate hike in July, but warns that further hikes may be challenged if growth data does not improve significantly [3] - Nomura's chief economist expresses caution, noting that while GDP is positive, the momentum is weak, reducing the likelihood of immediate further rate hikes [4] Government Fiscal Policy - The weak GDP data supports Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's push for expansionary fiscal policies following his party's electoral victory [4] - Kishida is considering discussions to temporarily suspend the food sales tax, aiming to offset tax revenue losses without relying on deficit financing [4] - The Japanese economy minister reiterated a stance of moderate recovery, suggesting that economic growth could be supported by the effects of various policies [4] Market Reaction - Following the weak GDP data, the Japanese market reacted cautiously, with bond futures rising slightly and the Nikkei index declining by 0.14% [5] Future Economic Outlook - Economists expect Japan's economy to continue expanding at a gradual pace, with projected annualized GDP growth of 1.04% in Q1 and 1.12% in Q2 [8]