大摩：AI是资本开支黑洞，风险向信用市场蔓延

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley indicates that artificial intelligence (AI) is transitioning from a mere capital market trend to a genuine variable causing structural pressure in the credit market [1] - The market perception of AI is diverging significantly, with tech giants continuing to invest heavily in infrastructure while the software sector faces substantial sell-offs [1] - The firm has raised its capital expenditure forecast for hyperscale cloud service providers, expecting it to reach $740 billion by 2026, driven by AI investment demand and a rebound in M&A activity [3][5] Investment Opportunities - There remains significant investment potential, with AI-related investments projected to grow by 20% by 2028, yet current actual investments are below this threshold [1] - The upcoming phase of capital expenditure will increasingly rely on diversified credit markets, including secured and unsecured financing, securitization, structured products, and joint ventures [1] Credit Market Dynamics - The credit market is experiencing pressure due to the weak stock market, particularly affecting sectors with high exposure to software, such as leveraged loans and business development companies (BDCs) [2][9] - Morgan Stanley warns that sentiment in these sectors may remain low, and credit investors might need to wait longer for a price correction before re-entering the market [10] - The firm anticipates that the issuance of U.S. investment-grade bonds will reach a record $2.25 trillion by 2026, driven by AI-related capital expenditures and a recovery in M&A activity [5][8] Market Sentiment and Risks - Concerns about the disruptive risks posed by AI are growing, leading to a reevaluation of the speed and breadth of potential disruptions in the software industry [9] - The S&P Software Index has declined by 23% year-to-date, contrasting with the S&P 500 Index, which has remained relatively stable [9] - Despite low current default rates, the acceleration of AI applications and ongoing uncertainties may lead to a deeper decline in credit market prices [10]