业绩超越99%同行的基金认为：AI浪潮下，仅有少数软件公司能存活

Core Viewpoint - The manager of Polar Capital, Nick Evans, has reduced exposure to software stocks, warning that most remain risky and only a few companies will survive the AI wave [1][5]. Group 1: Software Sector Risks - Application software is facing existential threats from AI advancements, with a significant decline in software stocks, exemplified by a 22% drop in an ETF tracking the U.S. software industry [1][5]. - Evans has liquidated all software holdings except for a small position in Microsoft, indicating a lack of confidence in companies like SAP, ServiceNow, Adobe, and HubSpot [1][6]. - The rise of AI programming tools poses a dual threat to traditional software companies, as clients are increasingly developing their own tools to cut costs while numerous AI startups emerge [6]. Group 2: Financial Pressures - The market downturn triggered by AI disruption is exacerbating cash flow pressures for software companies, as management may need to compensate for stock value losses with cash [3][7]. - The current stock prices do not reflect the uncertainty of long-term valuations or the pressures on free cash flow [8]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Evans believes that companies providing complex software suites, like SAP, may exhibit more resilience, but their long-term valuations remain highly uncertain due to the rapid enhancement of AI tools [2][6]. - The fund's top holdings include seven semiconductor companies, with Nvidia being the largest at nearly 10% of the portfolio, alongside interests in network equipment and energy infrastructure for data centers [2][6]. - Infrastructure software companies, such as Cloudflare and Snowflake, are expected to thrive, as evidenced by recent strong performance from Datadog and Fastly, with stock prices rising over 10% and doubling, respectively [8]. - Evans anticipates a brutal industry shakeout, predicting that most companies will face a fate similar to that of the print media industry in the 2000s, which was disrupted by the internet [8].