内部文件曝光，俄罗斯被曝要弃人民币拥抱美元，向美国递出投名状？普京打的什么算盘

Core Viewpoint - An internal memorandum leaked by Bloomberg reveals a potential 180-degree shift in Russia's post-war economic strategy, considering a return to the dollar settlement system, including for energy transactions [1][3]. Group 1: Proposed Economic Cooperation - The document, referred to as the "Dmitriev Plan," outlines a comprehensive list of cooperation across seven sectors, including long-term aviation contracts, joint ventures in oil and LNG, and collaboration in nuclear energy and AI projects [3]. - A key condition for this cooperation is the establishment of a ceasefire agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the gradual lifting of sanctions against Russia, including the removal of major Russian banks from the SWIFT system and the unfreezing of approximately $300 billion in overseas assets [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the news, gold prices dropped significantly, falling below the critical psychological level of $4,800 per ounce, with silver and other precious metals also declining [6]. - Market traders interpreted Russia's potential return to the dollar as a move that would strengthen the dollar's status as a global reserve currency and reduce geopolitical risks, thereby diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6]. Group 3: Economic Context - The pressure for this shift stems from Russia's economic situation, with oil export revenues projected to decline by approximately 24% year-on-year by 2025, and GDP growth slowing to 1% [7]. - The Russian National Wealth Fund, which has been heavily utilized for military expenses and budget deficits, has seen its gold reserves plummet from over 500 tons to just over 100 tons [7]. Group 4: Political Implications - The Kremlin views the potential for a more business-oriented U.S. administration under Trump as an opportunity to negotiate a favorable deal, with the plan designed to appeal to U.S. interests, such as compensating American companies for losses incurred during the conflict [8]. - Some Western officials suspect that the ambitious commitments in the plan may serve as bait to entice negotiations with Trump, with certain proposals aimed at creating rifts between the U.S. and its European allies [10]. Group 5: Strategic Considerations - The memorandum's content poses a significant challenge to China's interests, as it suggests a return to dollar transactions in key energy trades, conflicting with China's push for de-dollarization in its trade with Russia [10]. - The document reflects Russia's pragmatic approach to foreign policy, prioritizing national survival over ideological alliances, indicating a potential shift in its diplomatic strategy [12].