黄金、白银突然集体大跳水！降息预期降温，市场真相全拆解

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is under pressure due to strong U.S. economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, which has altered market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [1][3][24]. Economic Data Impact - On February 11, the U.S. Labor Department reported that 130,000 non-farm jobs were added in January, significantly exceeding market expectations of 50,000 to 75,000 [3][4]. - The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% in December to 4.3% in January, and average hourly earnings increased by $0.15 to $37.17, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [3][4]. Sector-Specific Employment Trends - Job growth in January was primarily driven by a few sectors: healthcare added 82,000 jobs, social assistance added 42,000, and construction added 33,000 [4][20]. - Conversely, sectors such as finance saw a reduction of 22,000 jobs, and federal government employment decreased by 34,000, totaling a loss of 327,000 jobs since October 2024 [6][20]. Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, and down from 2.7% in the previous month [7][24]. - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.5% year-on-year, matching market expectations but lower than the previous 2.6% [7][9]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the non-farm payroll data, the market adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in March dropping to 9.8% [10][18]. - The market now anticipates that the first rate cut may be delayed until July, with a cumulative cut of 61 basis points expected for the year [10][20]. Precious Metals Market Dynamics - The strong U.S. economic data has led to a decrease in demand for precious metals, traditionally viewed as safe-haven assets, as investors shift towards riskier assets [12][15]. - The recent decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to increased opportunity costs of holding non-yielding assets in a high-interest-rate environment [12][13]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from various firms have differing views on the sustainability of the job growth and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. Some suggest that the job growth is not broadly based and may not warrant immediate rate cuts [16][20]. - The overall sentiment indicates that while the labor market shows resilience, there are underlying concerns about the quality and sustainability of job growth across sectors [16][17].