Can Altria Sustain EPS Growth Momentum Through 2026?

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is focusing on sustaining its earnings per share (EPS) growth, projecting adjusted EPS of $5.56 to $5.72 for 2026, indicating a growth of approximately 2.5% to 5.5% [1][8] Earnings and Financial Management - The company is experiencing a decline in cigarette shipment volumes, which dropped about 10% in 2025, prompting reliance on price increases to maintain profitability and adjusted operating margins above 60% [2][8] - Share repurchases are significant for EPS growth, with $1 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization through the end of 2026, allowing the company to enhance per-share earnings by reducing shares outstanding [3][8] Investment in New Products - Altria is investing in smoke-free products, including nicotine pouches and e-vapor offerings, which are expanding but require ongoing investment, potentially limiting their near-term contribution to earnings [4] Competitive Landscape - In comparison, Philip Morris International Inc. is projected to achieve adjusted EPS growth of 11.1% to 13.1% in 2026, supported by its smoke-free business contributing over 40% of revenues [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. is also expected to maintain steady EPS growth through pricing discipline and expansion in modern oral nicotine products [6] Stock Performance and Valuation - Altria's shares have increased by 8.9% in the past month, outperforming the industry growth of 6.8% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.02X, lower than the industry average of 16.08X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's 2026 EPS has slightly decreased to $5.57, while the estimate for 2027 has increased to $5.75 [10]