张尧浠：假期市场交易清淡、金价维持震荡调整格局

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical negotiations and market conditions, with expectations of a short-term adjustment before potential upward movement [1][5]. Price Movement - On February 16, gold opened at $5042.31 per ounce, reached a high of $5042.31, and then declined to a low of $4965.63, closing at $4993.60, marking a daily drop of $48.71 or 0.97% [3]. - The following day, February 17, gold continued to face downward pressure, influenced by resistance from mid-range and short-term moving averages, as well as a strengthening US dollar [3]. Economic Indicators - Attention is on the upcoming US economic data, including the February New York Fed Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index, with mixed market expectations [5]. - Federal Reserve officials are expected to speak on artificial intelligence and its impact on the job market, which may support gold prices due to dovish sentiments [5]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing negotiations regarding Iran and the US, as well as the Russia-Ukraine talks, are contributing to uncertainty in the gold market, potentially increasing demand for gold as a safe haven [6]. - The US military's deployment of additional F-35 fighter jets to the Middle East adds to the geopolitical tension, which may further support gold prices [5][6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates that gold prices are maintaining a bullish outlook, having rebounded after touching a key support level, suggesting a potential for further upward movement [8]. - Weekly analysis shows that while gold prices rose last week, bullish momentum is weakening, with initial support at the 5-week moving average of $4960 [9]. - Daily charts indicate a period of adjustment, with expectations of a potential retest of the 30-day or 60-day moving averages for entry points into long positions [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4925 and $4880, while resistance levels are at $5000 and $5045 [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $74.25 and $72.40, with resistance at $77.30 and $78.90 [10].