智谱(02513.HK)：领跑中国大模型 开拓进取AGI

Investment Highlights - Company is covered for the first time by CICC with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 688.00, based on a forward P/S valuation method corresponding to a valuation multiple of 40 times P/S in 2028 and a discount rate of 7% [1] - Company is a leading large model vendor in China and a world-class player, founded in 2019, focusing on the GLM series foundational models, enhancing core capabilities in Coding, reasoning, and Agentic models [1] - The latest foundational model, GLM-5, has achieved state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in multiple benchmark scores and has received widespread acclaim from domestic and international users [1] Revenue Growth Potential - The commercial value of the models is being realized, empowering various industries; revenue CAGR is expected to exceed 130% from 2023 to 2027 [1] - API revenue is projected to become the main growth engine, with estimated API-related annual recurring revenue (ARR) nearing CNY 600 million by early 2026, representing a several-fold increase compared to the same period last year [1] - Company covers a wide range of industries including internet, software, and chips, focusing on releasing model value to enhance client productivity [1] AI Coding Market Opportunity - The total addressable market (TAM) for AI Coding is estimated to reach a trillion CNY scale, with the company having a leading advantage in this rapidly penetrating field [2] - Company specializes in refining the Coding scenario, possessing core advantages such as low hallucination rates, high stability, and strong reasoning and tool usage capabilities, likely to maintain leadership in the Coding scene and extend to more enterprise scenarios [2] - Key catalysts include the release of new generation models and high growth in API and Coding ARR [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2028 are CNY 720 million, 1.75 billion, 3.67 billion, and 7.67 billion respectively, with a CAGR of 120% [2] - The company is expected to iterate on foundational model capabilities and realize value in the Coding scenario, with a target price of HKD 688 based on a 40 times P/S valuation in 2028, indicating a 42% upside from the current trading at 25 times P/S [2]