专家：楼市或迎来探底和企稳的良好开局

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in housing prices across first, second, and third-tier cities, particularly in the second-hand housing market [1][3][9]. Group 1: New Housing Market - New residential property prices in first and third-tier cities decreased by 0.3% and 0.4% month-on-month, respectively, while second-tier cities saw a 0.3% decline, with a reduction of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [3]. - Year-on-year, new housing prices fell by 2.1%, 2.9%, and 3.9% in first, second, and third-tier cities, indicating a deep adjustment period for the new housing market [3]. - Notably, Shanghai's new housing prices increased by 4.2% year-on-year, contrasting with the overall downward trend [3]. Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market showed a significant recovery, with a month-on-month decline of only 0.5% in January, the lowest since August 2025, after three consecutive months of a 0.7% decline [3]. - In January, second-hand housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by 0.5%, 0.5%, and 0.6%, respectively, with reductions narrowing by 0.4, 0.2, and 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [3]. - Two cities reported a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices, ending a four-month streak of declines across 70 cities [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - January typically marks a seasonal downturn for the new housing market, with developers' promotional activities declining after achieving annual performance targets, leading to a significant month-on-month drop in transactions [4]. - The new housing transaction area in 50 key cities fell by 32% month-on-month and 20% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a more pronounced decline of 36% and 28%, respectively [4]. - Conversely, the second-hand housing market saw a 16% increase in transaction area month-on-month and a 33% year-on-year growth in 13 key cities, indicating a shift in demand towards second-hand properties [4]. Group 4: Expert Insights - Experts suggest that the current phase of the real estate market is a critical transitional period towards stabilization, with expectations for a positive outlook in 2026 [9]. - Continuous government support and market self-repair are essential for transitioning from a bottoming phase to a more stable market environment [9]. - Long-term strategies focusing on employment, social security, and urbanization are necessary to solidify the recovery and foster sustainable growth in the real estate sector [9].