芯片股退潮：财报揭示业绩分化，谁是AI真龙头？

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector in A-shares has experienced a significant divergence in performance, with leading companies benefiting from AI and advanced technologies, while traditional low-end chip companies face severe losses and declining stock prices [1][3][5] Group 1: Performance Divergence - As of January 30, 2026, among 115 semiconductor companies in A-shares, 70 are expected to be profitable while 45 are projected to incur losses, indicating a near 50-50 split in performance [3] - Leading companies like SMIC reported a revenue of 67.32 billion yuan for 2025, a 16.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.04 billion yuan, up 36.3%, driven by AI chip and automotive electronics businesses [3] - Cambrian Technology forecasts a net profit of 1.85 to 2.15 billion yuan for 2025, with revenue expected to grow by 410.87% to 496.02%, showcasing the explosive growth of AI chip sales [4] Group 2: Characteristics of Leading Companies - Companies such as Haiguang Information and Cambrian Technology are recognized as leaders in AI chip technology, with significant profit growth and high gross margins, attracting institutional investment [4] - These leading firms possess core technologies, real orders, and sustainable profitability, distinguishing them from companies that rely on outdated business models [4][5] Group 3: Struggles of Traditional Companies - Companies like Yandong Microelectronics are projected to incur losses of 340 to 425 million yuan due to plummeting prices in consumer electronics chips and low production capacity utilization [4] - Zhaoxin Technology is expected to report a loss of 110 to 150 million yuan, as traditional chip design continues to decline without adapting to AI needs [5] - Many companies focused on low-end chips have seen revenues drop significantly, with stock prices falling by 60% to 70%, leading to a classification as "zombie stocks" [5] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - The semiconductor industry has moved past a "universal rise" phase, entering a period of refined competition where only companies with technology, orders, and performance will thrive [6] - The presence of AI capabilities and sustained revenue growth are now critical indicators of a company's potential, while those lacking these attributes are likely to face further declines [6]