普京突然转向，俄罗斯或重回美元怀抱，对人民币的伤害有多大？

Core Viewpoint - Russia is signaling a willingness to return to the US dollar settlement system under the condition of lifting sanctions, marking a significant shift from its previous stance of de-dollarization and heavy investment in gold and the yuan [1][5]. Economic Conditions - Russia's economy has been under severe pressure since being excluded from the SWIFT system and facing asset freezes, leading to stagnation with GDP growth dropping below 1% [1][2]. - Inflation remains a persistent issue, with the central bank lowering the key interest rate from 16% to 15.5% but still projecting annual inflation between 4.5% and 5.5% [1][2]. Currency and Trade Dynamics - The official exchange rate of the ruble appears stable, but the black market rate has exceeded 88 rubles per dollar, indicating high costs for currency exchange and restricted cross-border trade [2]. - Russia's energy exports have faced challenges as countries like India and the EU reduce purchases, leading to a significant fiscal deficit and the need for new economic strategies [2][5]. Strategic Adjustments - Returning to the dollar settlement system could drastically reduce the cost of ruble conversion and potentially lead to a sharp appreciation of the ruble, which could negatively impact export revenues [5][7]. - Russia is offering favorable conditions to attract US capital, including opening up key resource projects, indicating a strategic pivot rather than a complete abandonment of previous policies [5][15]. Implications for China-Russia Relations - The shift towards the dollar may temporarily disrupt the yuan's internationalization process, but it is unlikely to lead to a complete breakdown in China-Russia cooperation, which has deepened beyond energy trade into technology and infrastructure [7][17]. - China may gain leverage in negotiations for energy prices as Russia seeks to alleviate economic pressures while navigating Western sanctions [9][15]. Global Financial Landscape - The situation illustrates that de-dollarization is not a binary choice; countries will maintain ties to the dollar for its liquidity while pursuing a multi-currency framework [19][21]. - The evolving dynamics highlight the importance of strategic cooperation and the need for China to optimize its partnership with Russia amidst these changes [21].