鹏扬基金总经理杨爱斌：2026年经济和市场展望，春启新章，骏行致远

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the opportunities and challenges in the economic landscape for 2026, highlighting the importance of policy adjustments and innovation for sustainable growth [3][4]. Economic Outlook - The external environment is increasingly complex, with differentiated growth dynamics, rising trade barriers, and uncertainties in inflation and monetary policy among major economies [3]. - China is expected to showcase robust potential and stability in the global economic landscape, leveraging both existing and new policies to enhance macroeconomic governance and promote high-quality development [3]. Domestic Demand Expansion - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to unleash economic potential, with proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies maintaining liquidity [4]. - Real estate sales are nearing long-term equilibrium, and a new development model is expected to emerge in 2026, reducing the marginal impact of real estate investment on the economy [4]. - Service consumption is identified as a key driver for demand expansion, with plans to increase urban and rural residents' income and develop service trade [4]. - Economic growth is projected to achieve a nominal GDP growth rate of around 4.5%, supported by stable production, improved structure, resilient external demand, and expanded internal demand [4]. Modern Industrial System - Technological innovation is crucial for China's modernization, with new technologies and products emerging, enhancing market space [5]. - The government is implementing a new round of high-quality development actions for key industrial chains, emphasizing the role of enterprises in innovation [5]. - The integration of the service sector with manufacturing is expected to inject new momentum into economic growth and employment [5]. Investment Strategies - In the context of declining bond yields and rising stock indices, the difficulty of achieving stable wealth growth through single assets and strategies is increasing [6]. - The company aims to enhance its investment capabilities across various business lines, including active fixed income, equity research, and multi-asset strategies [6]. - The focus is on discovering high-quality companies and capitalizing on the themes of technological growth and expanding domestic demand [6].