Should You Buy, Sell or Hold Newmont Stock Ahead of Q4 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Newmont Corporation (NEM) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 19, with anticipated benefits from higher gold prices despite challenges from weaker production [1][7]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has been revised upward to $1.81 per share, indicating a 29.3% year-over-year increase [2][3]. - The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is projected at $5.76 billion, reflecting a roughly 2% increase from the previous year [2]. Production and Pricing Factors - Higher realized gold prices are expected to positively impact Newmont's revenues and margins for the fourth quarter [6][10]. - Gold prices increased nearly 13% in the fourth quarter and surged approximately 65% in 2025, with an average realized price for Newmont estimated at $3,560 per ounce, a 34.7% year-over-year rise [10][8]. - Newmont's production is anticipated to decline by about 25% year-over-year, with expected production of 1.415 million ounces for the fourth quarter, influenced by strategic divestments and lower grades [12][11]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Newmont's shares have increased by 170.1% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry, which rose by 143.7% [13]. - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 15.14, which is a 7.8% premium to the peer group average of 14.05 [17]. Growth and Strategic Positioning - Newmont is positioned for growth with a strong portfolio of projects aimed at expanding production capacity and extending mine life, which should drive revenues and profits [18]. - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited is expected to enhance Newmont's portfolio and deliver significant shareholder value [18]. - The company's focus on high-return, long-life assets supports its long-term sustainability [19]. Financial Health - Newmont maintains a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, enabling it to fund growth projects and meet short-term obligations [19]. - The anticipated production decline due to divestments and lower grades may impact profitability goals [19]. Investment Outlook - Newmont is well-positioned for future expansion, supported by solid performance from its Tier 1 assets and a robust project pipeline [20]. - Elevated gold prices are expected to enhance margins and cash flow generation, although softer production levels could pressure near-term results [20].