JPMorgan's Q4 Loan Trajectory: Where Did Expansion Show Up?

Core Insights - JPMorgan's loan book accelerated in Q4 2025, with significant growth in wholesale lending and credit cards, indicating a strategic focus on areas where the bank has scale advantages [1][2] Loan Growth and Composition - As of December 31, 2025, total loans reached $1.49 trillion, reflecting a 4% sequential increase and an 11% year-over-year growth, driven primarily by wholesale loans which rose 5% quarter-over-quarter and 17% year-over-year to $843.4 billion [2][9] - Within the consumer loan segment, credit card loans showed the strongest growth, increasing 5% sequentially and 6% year-over-year to $247.8 billion, while other consumer loans (excluding cards) grew modestly by 2% to $402.3 billion [3][9] Strategic Partnerships - In January 2026, JPMorgan signed an agreement to become the new issuer of Apple Card, which is expected to add approximately $20 billion in card balances to Chase, enhancing JPMorgan's presence in the U.S. card market [4] Interest Income and Projections - A lower interest rate environment is anticipated to boost borrowing and refinancing, supporting loan growth despite potential pressure on net interest income (NII). JPMorgan expects NII to reach approximately $103 billion in 2026, a 7.4% increase from $95.9 billion in 2025 [5] Peer Comparison - As of December 31, 2025, Bank of America reported total loans and leases of $1.17 trillion, up 8% year-over-year, with commercial loans growing 12% [6] - Citigroup's loans totaled $752 billion, with corporate loans growing 14% year-over-year, while consumer loans increased by 4% [7] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - JPMorgan shares have appreciated by 3.8% over the past six months, and the bank trades at a price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 2.98X, below the industry average [8][10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a 5.1% increase in JPMorgan's earnings for 2026, with a further growth rate of 7.6% expected for 2027 [11]