Earnings Preview: Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (APLS) Q4 Earnings Expected to Decline

Core Viewpoint - Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (APLS) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues for the quarter ending December 2025, with a consensus outlook indicating a potential impact on its near-term stock price [1]. Financial Performance Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to be released on February 24, and if the results exceed expectations, the stock may rise; conversely, missing estimates could lead to a decline [2]. - The consensus estimate predicts a quarterly loss of $0.39 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -34.5%, with revenues projected at $194.37 million, down 8.5% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions Trend - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.84% higher, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Apellis is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -3.07%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the deviation of actual earnings from consensus estimates, with a positive ESP being a strong predictor of an earnings beat [9][10]. - Apellis currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat given the negative Earnings ESP [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Apellis was expected to post earnings of $1.03 per share but delivered $1.67, resulting in a surprise of +62.14% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Industry Comparison - In contrast, Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), another player in the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, is expected to post a loss of $0.7 per share for the same quarter, with revenues projected to be $193.01 million, up 62.5% year-over-year [18]. - Axsome's consensus EPS estimate has been revised 9.2% higher in the last 30 days, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +43.57%, suggesting a likely earnings beat [19][20].