华尔街推演沃什上台后美联储缩表路径 预计央行将付出高昂代价

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street strategists believe that Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve chairman nominated by Trump, has multiple avenues to reduce the Fed's $6.6 trillion balance sheet, but the process is costly and time-consuming [1] Group 1: Potential Strategies for Balance Sheet Reduction - Possible strategies for balance sheet reduction include relaxing regulations that encourage banks to hold large amounts of cash reserves at the central bank [1] - Another option is to shorten the average maturity of the Fed's holdings [1] - The Fed could also cease purchasing Treasury securities or even directly sell securities [1] Group 2: Challenges and Timeframe - A less likely option is to resume balance sheet reduction through quantitative tightening, which was abandoned in December due to increased borrowing by the government leading to pressure in the money markets [1] - Following this, the Fed shifted to purchasing Treasury securities to inject reserves back into the system [1] - Regardless of the path taken under Warsh's leadership, it may take several years to implement any of these strategies [1]