全球秩序重构下的“慢牛”与配置主线

Macro Background: Debt Cycle and Order Reconstruction - The global market is currently at the tail end of a long-term debt cycle, with government debt as a percentage of GDP at historically high levels, and the marginal effectiveness of traditional monetary policy is diminishing [4] - The international monetary system dominated by the US dollar is facing multiple challenges, with international trade shifting from globalization to regionalization, and increased protection of key technologies and resources [4] - The reconstruction of global order and reserve assets will be a key backdrop for financial market trends in 2026 [4] Commodity Market: Downward Pressure Easing - The downward pressure on the commodity market is expected to ease, with prices gradually rising, although sector differentiation will continue [6] - Gold is anticipated to maintain a strong oscillating pattern due to ongoing diversified purchases by central banks and geopolitical uncertainties, enhancing its status as a long-term currency [6] - Copper and aluminum are seen as leading indicators of structural market trends, driven by rigid demand from infrastructure upgrades related to electric grids, electric vehicles, and AI data centers [6] - The oversupply pressure in crude oil is gradually being digested, with OPEC's production increase pace slowing, which may push oil prices higher [6] Agricultural Products: Price Stabilization - Agricultural product prices are likely to continue a pattern of oscillation, with current prices at low levels and cost support gradually emerging [7] - The supply-demand balance is expected to improve, with attention needed on weather factors and trade policies during peak demand periods [7] A-Share Market: "Low Volatility, Slow Bull" and Structural Opportunities - In the context of high global debt and rising inflation, the long-term downward space for government bond yields is limited, leading to a "strong stocks, weak bonds" scenario [8] - The A-share market in 2026 is expected to exhibit characteristics of "low volatility, slow bull," with three main investment themes: upstream resource companies benefiting from fiscal expansion and rising resource prices, companies achieving breakthroughs in key technologies, and undervalued defensive sectors [9] Investment Strategy: From Balanced to Proactive - The asset allocation logic for 2026 should focus more on flexibility and structure, moving from traditional balanced stock-bond strategies to more proactive approaches [10] - Real assets and equity assets are favored in the current inflation and growth environment, while the safe-haven function of bonds is relatively weak [10] - Long-term opportunities in the commodity market, particularly in gold, copper, and aluminum, as well as price recovery in undervalued chemical products, are worth attention [10] Differentiated Investment Strategies - Conservative investors should focus on high-grade bonds, deposits, and money market funds, maintaining high liquidity, with a limited allocation to equities and commodities [11] - Moderate investors should balance stock and bond allocations, with a tilt towards equities, while considering commodity investments through thematic funds or resource stocks [11] - Aggressive investors may overweight stocks and commodities, with a significant allocation to equities and direct participation in the futures market or high-volatility commodity stocks [11]