张尧浠：避险情绪降温、金价延续调整待再回踩支撑

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced downward pressure due to positive signals from US-Iran negotiations and the formal initiation of the US-Japan trade agreement, reducing safe-haven demand [1][6]. Market Performance - Gold opened at $4995.59 per ounce, reached a high of $5000.90, and then declined to a low of $4841.30, closing at $4877.29, marking a daily drop of $118.3 or 2.37% [3]. - The market outlook for gold remains weak, with significant resistance above and no further positive fundamentals to support a rally [3][6]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes US December new housing starts (annualized), December durable goods orders month-on-month, December building permits (thousands), January industrial production month-on-month, and January Conference Board leading indicators month-on-month, with expectations leaning towards positive impacts on gold prices [5]. Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a dovish stance on interest rates, with discussions around the extent and timing of rate cuts, which may not exert significant pressure on gold prices [6]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks have decreased significantly due to breakthroughs in US-Iran nuclear talks and peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, leading to diminished safe-haven demand for gold [6]. - The strengthening of the US dollar has also contributed to selling pressure on gold, although this is viewed as a temporary phase within a broader bullish market context [6]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices are maintaining a bullish outlook despite recent declines, remaining above the 5-month moving average, indicating a potential for further upward movement [8]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold has encountered resistance and may test the 10-week moving average support at $4730 [8]. - Daily charts indicate that gold is currently below the mid-range and short-term moving averages, with expectations of further declines unless it stabilizes above these levels [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4820 and $4730, while resistance levels are at $4930 and $4990 [11]. - For silver, support is noted at $70.80 and $68.20, with resistance at $75.00 and $76.70 [11].