公开和沃什“唱反调”？多位美联储高官称：AI提升生产力或意味着“更高的中性利率”

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials indicate that productivity growth driven by artificial intelligence (AI) may lead to higher interest rates, contrasting sharply with the views of the Trump administration and its Fed nominee, Walsh [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Fed Governor Michael Barr stated that the AI boom is unlikely to be a reason for lowering policy rates, citing factors like capital demand and household savings that could exert upward pressure on rates [1]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that under "standard models," accelerated productivity growth from AI will lead to a higher neutral interest rate due to increased investment demand relative to savings supply [1][3]. - Vice Chair Philip Jefferson previously suggested that sustained increases in productivity could lead to a temporary rise in the neutral rate, indicating a divergence of views within the Fed [2]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Policy Signals - Investors currently expect the Fed will not lower rates before mid-year, reflecting the Fed officials' latest assessments on the impact of AI [1][3]. - The Fed has cumulatively cut rates by 175 basis points over the past year and a half, following over 500 basis points of increases in 2022 and 2023, with many officials believing current rates are close to neutral [3]. - The futures market aligns with Fed officials' views on AI's influence, suggesting that monetary policy may remain unchanged for an extended period [3].