管涛：从兼顾内外均衡角度理解人民币汇率政策

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of proactive macro policies in China, aiming for effective economic growth and stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable level [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - China's current account surplus reached a record $734.9 billion last year, a 73.4% increase year-on-year, with a ratio to nominal GDP of 3.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous year [1] - In the last two quarters of the previous year, the current account surplus was $198.7 billion and $242.1 billion, respectively, both setting new quarterly records [1] - Exports grew by 5.5% last year, while imports remained stable, resulting in a trade surplus of $1.19 trillion, despite a 20% decline in exports to the U.S. [2] Group 2: Trade Dynamics - The increase in the trade surplus indicates a potential for RMB appreciation, but domestic demand remains weak, necessitating continued active fiscal and moderate monetary policies [2] - China's export market share fell to 14.36% in the first three quarters of last year, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year, with a more significant drop in global import market share of 9.69%, down 0.76 percentage points [2] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - The macroeconomic policy should adhere to the Tinbergen Rule, ensuring that policy tools match the number of objectives, with exchange rate policy focusing on external balance and fiscal/monetary policy on internal balance [3] - The report suggests a need for careful management of exchange rate expectations to avoid excessive appreciation or depreciation, emphasizing the importance of market-driven exchange rate formation [4][5] - It is recommended to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations while promoting domestic demand and structural adjustments to achieve a more balanced economic growth model [5]