美联储6.6万亿资产负债表“瘦身”将是漫长苦战，华尔街急评四大路径！

Core Viewpoint - The potential paths for Federal Reserve Chairman candidate Kevin Warsh to reduce the central bank's $6.6 trillion balance sheet are numerous, but the process will be costly and time-consuming [1] Group 1: Current Situation - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has expanded significantly after years of bond purchases [3] - The upcoming January policy meeting minutes are expected to reveal policymakers' latest views on the balance sheet [1] Group 2: Proposed Paths for Reduction - Possible paths include relaxing regulations that encourage banks to hold large cash reserves, shortening the average maturity of the Fed's asset holdings, stopping short-term Treasury purchases, or even directly selling securities [4] - A less likely option is to restart the asset reduction process, known as quantitative tightening, which the Fed abandoned in December due to increased government borrowing leading to market tensions [4] Group 3: Challenges and Considerations - Analysts suggest that even if the Fed stops purchasing short-term Treasuries by June, reserves may not significantly decline by December 2026 [6] - Regulatory adjustments to reduce banks' demand for reserves could take time, with potential reforms not expected until mid-2027 [8] - If the Fed chooses to reinvest a portion of its maturing assets into short-term Treasuries, it could align its asset maturity with the Treasury's issuance schedule by mid-2029 [9] Group 4: Asset Sales - Policymakers have discussed the possibility of selling assets, particularly mortgage-backed securities, which could lead to increased operational losses for the Fed [10] - However, over time, the Fed's profitability may improve as it would stop receiving interest below its paid rates [10]