春节期间，全球资本市场涨跌情况，与节后市场预测

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets exhibited a stable performance during the Spring Festival holiday, setting a favorable external environment for the A-share market's reopening, with key drivers including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a recovery in industrial metal demand [3][6][13]. Equity Markets - The A-share market experienced a slight decline before the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4082.07 points, down 1.26%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.28% [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market was the only major Asian market open during the holiday, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.52% to 26705.94 points, driven by sectors such as semiconductors and AI applications [5]. - The U.S. stock market remained stable, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.10% and the S&P 500 maintaining a strong position, supported by robust corporate earnings and expectations of interest rate cuts [5][14]. Debt Market and Currency - The U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 3.85%, reflecting an 80% probability of a rate cut by June, driven by easing inflation data [6][13]. - The exchange rate remained stable, with the USD/CNY rate at 6.9225, supported by the People's Bank of China's liquidity measures and narrowing interest rate differentials [6]. Commodity Market - Industrial metals showed strong performance, with copper prices rising by 1.4% to $13,176 per ton, benefiting from global demand recovery and expectations of liquidity easing [7]. - Oil prices remained stable, with WTI crude oil slightly increasing to $62.89 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [7]. Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a bullish trend post-holiday, with historical data indicating a 76% probability of an increase in the first five trading days after the Spring Festival [9]. - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to undergo a structural rebound, with a 60% probability of an increase in the month following the holiday, driven by external sentiment and capital inflows [11]. - The U.S. market is projected to continue its strong performance, particularly in technology sectors, supported by favorable interest rate expectations and solid corporate earnings [14].