美股空头放狠话：OpenAI、SpaceX IPO要拖垮股市？

Group 1 - The core concern of the bears is that the IPO market will be extremely active this year, with major companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX likely to go public, which could negatively impact the stock market in the long term [3][6] - GMO has calculated that for every 1% increase in total market capitalization due to IPOs, the subsequent 12-month return rate declines by 7.5%, indicating a significant potential downside for investors [3] - The current total market capitalization of the US stock market is approximately $50 trillion, meaning a 1% increase equates to $500 billion, which could be easily triggered by the IPOs of these tech giants [3] Group 2 - There is skepticism regarding whether these tech giants will actually go public this year, as the current environment for tech stocks has become less favorable, and some experts suggest that OpenAI's IPO might even be withdrawn [5] - Interestingly, if these companies do not proceed with their IPOs, the bearish predictions may not materialize, potentially resulting in a positive outcome for the stock market [6] - Despite the possibility of being wrong about the IPOs, the bear remains steadfast in their negative outlook on the US stock market, citing a long list of reasons to remain bearish [6]