麦肯锡：2025年全球氢能指南报告（英文版）

Core Insights - The report highlights that global clean hydrogen investments have surpassed $110 billion, corresponding to 510 projects, marking a $35 billion increase from the previous year and a compound annual growth rate of over 50% [20][26][88] - The hydrogen industry is transitioning from a phase of numerous project announcements to a more mature selection process, with over 50 projects canceled in the last 18 months primarily due to policy uncertainty and financing challenges [20][26][29] - Regional disparities in hydrogen development are evident, with China leading in renewable hydrogen capacity, North America focusing on low-carbon hydrogen, and Europe emerging as a demand center driven by policy [20][35][36] Investment Landscape - Committed investments in clean hydrogen have increased significantly, with the average project size growing from $5 million in 2020 to an estimated $260 million in 2025, indicating a shift towards larger industrial-scale projects [88][93] - The total hydrogen project pipeline has expanded to 1,749 projects, with 510 projects considered committed, representing 30% of all announced projects [79][80] - The investment pipeline across all project stages has increased eightfold since 2020, reaching an estimated $695 billion, although the rate of new announcements has slowed as focus shifts to mature projects [89] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current committed clean hydrogen capacity stands at 6 million tonnes per year (mtpa), with 1 mtpa already operational, and the pipeline could support 9-14 mtpa by 2030 depending on demand [28][29] - Approximately 3.6 mtpa of binding offtake has been secured globally, with existing use cases primarily in refining and ammonia production, particularly in the EU, Japan, and Korea [29][30] - By 2030, an estimated 8 mtpa of clean hydrogen demand could materialize in key markets, contingent on the implementation of existing policies [21][29] Regional Insights - China accounts for 55% of global renewable hydrogen capacity, driven by domestic market demand and supportive government policies [35] - Europe is expected to see nearly 5 mtpa of clean hydrogen demand by 2030, contingent on the successful implementation of policies like the Renewable Energy Directive [36] - North America leads in low-carbon hydrogen production, with 85% of global low-carbon capacity, but faces challenges in domestic demand-side policies [39] Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The hydrogen sector is navigating a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by high interest rates and energy costs, which complicates project financing and execution [20][21] - Industry leaders emphasize the importance of demand certainty and policy stability as critical factors for project success, with 97% believing hydrogen is essential for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors [22][50] - The report identifies six key success factors for clean hydrogen projects, including strategic site selection, cost optimization, and clear offtake strategies [2][29]