UBS lifts forecast for big tech bond sales this year

Group 1: Investment Grade Bond Sales - UBS raised its 2026 forecast for U.S. tech investment grade bond sales to $360 billion from $300 billion, reflecting increased capital expenditure by major tech firms [1] - The overall forecast for U.S. investment grade debt issuance was increased from $1.725 trillion to $1.8 trillion, with tech accounting for 20% of that total [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Hyperscalers - UBS anticipates aggregate capital expenditure by hyperscalers to approach $770 billion for 2026, which is approximately 23% higher than previous forecasts [1] - Hyperscaler public debt issuance could rise by an additional $40 billion to $50 billion, reaching up to $240 billion [1] Group 3: Non-Dollar Markets and Global Funding - UBS expects an increase in non-U.S. dollar supply in the tech sector, as evidenced by Alphabet's recent bond deals in the Swiss franc and sterling markets [1] - The shift of big tech firms to tap debt markets for funding AI data centers has led to a surge in issuance across various debt markets [1] Group 4: Leveraged Loans Forecast - UBS cut its U.S. leveraged loans forecast to $360 billion from $450 billion, citing expectations that AI-related disruptions could limit supply [1] - Concerns regarding the impact of AI on traditional business models have increased, leading to potential wider spreads in the leveraged loan space [1]