Economic Data Weekly Outlook: FOMC Minutes, GDP, PCE, PMIs, UMich

Group 1: Market Overview - International stocks, particularly the MSCI All-Country World ex-USA Index, have shown their best return relative to the S&P 500 Index since at least 1995, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [2] - Domestic "SMID" caps and defensive sectors like Consumer Staples and Real Estate are outperforming, while Energy and Materials are leading among the 11 S&P 500 sectors [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Earnings - A busy week of macroeconomic releases is expected, including Q4 GDP and PCE inflation data, which could reshape growth and inflation narratives [9][10] - The anticipated Q4 GDP growth rate is 3.0% quarter-on-quarter annualized, a deceleration from Q3's 4.4% [11] - The PCE update for October to December will provide a clearer view of inflation, with expectations of a warm year-end print [12] Group 3: Corporate Insights - Walmart's upcoming earnings report is anticipated to provide insights into consumer behavior and potential AI and cost-cutting strategies under new CEO John Furner [6][7] - The tech sector, particularly high-margin software companies, is facing valuation pressures, with many stocks trading at mid-teens P/E multiples [5] Group 4: Consumer and Business Sentiment - The S&P Global Flash PMIs will be released, which may reflect improved sentiment among business owners and corporate managers, potentially indicating a better labor market [14] - The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers will provide a second update on consumer sentiment, with initial reports showing more optimism than expected [15]