关键矿产“去中国化”？“美国这10年是看不到了”

Core Viewpoint - The United States faces a long and challenging journey, potentially lasting "ten years," to reduce its dependence on China for rare earth elements, despite efforts from the Trump administration to address this issue [3][10]. Group 1: U.S. Initiatives - The Trump administration has proposed a $12 billion plan for stockpiling critical minerals and has promised over $30 billion in investments and loans to private companies in the past six months [4]. - A new "Treasury Plan" was established on February 2, aiming to secure $10 billion in loans from the Export-Import Bank of the United States and leverage nearly $2 billion in private investment for stockpiling essential rare earths and other minerals [5]. Group 2: Challenges in Supply Chain - Experts believe that despite the U.S. initiatives, these measures may not be effective in the event of a supply shortage, as China holds a dominant position in the global rare earth supply chain [6]. - China controls 60% of global rare earth mining and 90% of refining, with 94% of heavy rare earth permanent magnets sourced from China [7][8]. - It is estimated that building sufficient rare earth reserves in the U.S. could take several years [9]. Group 3: Limitations of U.S. Plans - The "Treasury Plan" may only provide enough stockpiled minerals for 45 days of U.S. consumption if reserves are built proportionally [11]. - Publicizing budgets and plans may limit negotiation leverage, potentially driving up prices due to urgency in purchasing [12][13]. - The process of mining is complex, taking an average of 16 years from discovery to production, compounded by lengthy approval processes, strict environmental regulations, and high operational costs [15][17]. Group 4: Historical Context and Comparisons - Other countries, such as Japan, have struggled to reduce their reliance on China, with Japan's dependence decreasing from 90% to 60% over more than a decade of efforts [10]. - An independent analyst noted that establishing a new supply chain system is unlikely to be completed in less than ten years [10].