Live Analysis: Will Carvana Soar After Earnings Tonight?

Core Viewpoint - Carvana is facing scrutiny following fraud allegations, which have impacted its stock performance, and the upcoming Q4 earnings report is critical for addressing investor concerns and expectations [1]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Carvana is expected to report Q4 earnings with analysts predicting over 150,000 retail units sold and full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA at or above $2.2 billion [1]. - Wall Street consensus anticipates revenues of $5.27 billion and EPS of $1.12, with a 56.5% probability of beating the $1.08 consensus EPS estimate [1]. Group 2: Recent Performance - Carvana's stock has decreased by 18.7% over the past month, following a 14% drop on January 28 due to fraud allegations [1]. - In Q3, Carvana reported $5.647 billion in revenue, exceeding the $5.1 billion consensus, but missed EPS expectations with $1.03 compared to the $1.36 estimate [1]. Group 3: Management's Response - The management's response to the fraud allegations will be crucial, as they previously labeled the claims as "inaccurate and intentionally misleading" [1]. - Investors are looking for transparency regarding related-party transactions and operational insights, particularly on same-day delivery expansion and logistics costs [1].