Molson Coors forecasts sharp drop in 2026 profit as aluminum costs bite

Core Viewpoint - Molson Coors anticipates a significant decline in annual profit for 2026 due to increased aluminum costs and reduced consumer spending, particularly among price-sensitive customers [1] Financial Performance - The company forecasts adjusted earnings per share for 2026 to decrease by 11% to 15%, contrasting with previous estimates of a 1.9% increase to $5.48 [1] - For the fourth quarter, net sales were reported at $2.66 billion, falling short of analysts' expectations of $2.71 billion [1] - Underlying earnings for the quarter were $1.21 per share, exceeding estimates of $1.16 per share [1] Cost and Revenue Outlook - A spike in aluminum costs has led to an 8.1% increase in the cost of goods sold per hectoliter for Molson Coors, which heavily relies on aluminum cans for packaging [1] - The CFO indicated that commodity inflation will continue to negatively impact profitability in 2026, despite expectations for improved revenue trends [1] - Projected net sales for 2026 are expected to range from a decline of 1% to an increase of 1% compared to the previous year, while analysts had anticipated a 0.1% drop [1] Market Trends - There is a noted shift in alcohol demand as health-conscious consumers are increasingly opting for non-alcoholic drinks and energy beverages, a trend further influenced by the adoption of GLP1 weight-loss drugs [1] - Younger consumers, particularly Gen Z, are reducing their consumption of beer and spirits [1]