Summary of Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) - **Event**: 2025 Conference Call - **Date**: June 03, 2025 Key Points Company Positioning and Legacy - The outgoing CEO reflects on a strong company culture and a solid balance sheet, stating that leverage is below 2.5 times, which is an improvement from previous years [3][4] - The company has successfully retained market share in the premium light beer segment, with brands like Coors Banquet and Coors Light performing well [5] Financial Performance and Market Challenges - The company faced a challenging macroeconomic environment, with consumer sentiment being tough, leading to a focus on maintaining market share for core brands [7][8] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in the industry, with a drop of 5%, which was unexpected [18][19] - The company anticipates a recovery, projecting a decline of around 3% for the remainder of the year, aided by easier comparisons from the previous summer [18][19] Strategic Focus Areas - The company is prioritizing the execution of its capital allocation plan, focusing on core brands and new product launches, particularly Peroni and Fever Tree [10][11] - There is a strong emphasis on premiumization, with a target of one-third of brand revenue coming from above-premium products, including non-alcoholic options [25][26][34] Distribution and Innovation - The acquisition of Fever Tree is seen as a significant opportunity to enhance the non-alcoholic portfolio, with plans to leverage the existing distribution network [11][15] - The company is also focusing on expanding its presence in convenience stores with higher ABV products [62] Cost Management and Operational Efficiency - The company is managing costs through an extensive hedging program and has diversified its supply chain to mitigate tariff impacts [30][31] - Investments in automated breweries and modernization efforts are expected to drive efficiencies and reduce costs [63][64] Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - On-premise sales are performing better than off-premise, indicating a shift in consumer behavior post-COVID [42] - The company has not observed significant trading down among consumers, maintaining a focus on core brands that continue to attract new customers [49][50] Future Outlook and Advice for Successor - The outgoing CEO emphasizes the importance of maintaining the company culture and leveraging the strong balance sheet for future growth opportunities [76][77] - There is a belief in the cyclical recovery of the market, with optimism for long-term growth despite current challenges [71][79] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted Molson Coors' strategic focus on premiumization, innovation, and operational efficiency while navigating a challenging market environment. The company is well-positioned for future growth with a strong balance sheet and a commitment to its core brands.

Group 1: Company Overview - Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) is located in the Consumer Staples sector and has experienced a price change of -2.93% this year [3] - The company currently pays a dividend of $0.47 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.38%, which is significantly higher than the Beverages - Alcohol industry's yield of 1.15% and the S&P 500's yield of 1.57% [3] Group 2: Dividend Performance - The annualized dividend of Molson Coors Brewing is $1.88, reflecting a 6.8% increase from the previous year [4] - Over the past 5 years, the company has raised its dividend 4 times, achieving an average annual increase of 8.52% [4] - The current payout ratio is 34%, indicating that the company distributes 34% of its trailing 12-month earnings per share as dividends [4] Group 3: Earnings Growth - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molson Coors Brewing's earnings per share for 2025 is $6.02, which represents a year-over-year growth rate of 1.01% [5] Group 4: Investment Considerations - Molson Coors Brewing is considered a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong dividend profile and current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]

Core Viewpoint - Molson Coors Beverage Company reported disappointing first-quarter 2025 results, with both revenue and earnings falling short of expectations and declining year over year [1][2]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were 50 cents, down 47.4% year over year, missing the consensus estimate of 80 cents [1]. - Net sales decreased 11.3% year over year to $2.30 billion, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.44 billion [2]. - Gross profit fell 11.7% year over year to $850.9 million, with a gross margin of 36.9%, down 20 basis points [5]. - Underlying earnings before taxes (EBT) plummeted 41.1% year over year to $156.3 million, with a constant-currency decline of 49.5% [7]. Segment Analysis - In the Americas segment, net sales dropped 12.3% year over year to $1.88 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $1.96 billion [8]. - EMEA&APAC segment net sales fell 6% year over year to $427.3 million, also below the consensus estimate of $452 million [11]. Volume and Pricing Dynamics - Financial volumes decreased 14.3% year over year, primarily due to lower shipments across the Americas and EMEA&APAC segments [4]. - Brand volumes in the Americas fell 7.4%, with a notable 8.8% decline in the U.S. [9]. - Price and sales mix positively impacted net sales by 4.1%, driven by favorable sales mix and higher net pricing [10]. Cost and Expenses - Marketing, general and administrative (MG&A) expenses slightly decreased by 0.2% year over year to $653.2 million, influenced by reduced marketing investment [6]. - The underlying EBT decline was attributed to cost inflation in materials and manufacturing expenses, despite some offset from favorable pricing and cost savings [10]. Cash Flow and Debt - As of March 31, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $412.7 million and total debt of $6.24 billion, resulting in a net debt of $5.83 billion [13]. - The company reported a negative underlying free cash flow of $264.6 million, primarily due to lower operating cash flows and higher capital expenditures [13]. Future Outlook - Management has revised its 2025 financial outlook, now projecting a low-single-digit decline in sales year over year, compared to previous expectations of low-single-digit growth [15]. - Underlying EPS growth is now expected in the low single-digit range, down from a high single-digit increase previously anticipated [16]. - Capital expenditure guidance for 2025 has been reduced to $650 million from $750 million [17].

Core Insights - Molson Coors Brewing reported $2.3 billion in revenue for Q1 2025, a year-over-year decline of 11.3% [1] - The company's EPS for the same period was $0.50, down from $0.95 a year ago, reflecting a surprise of -37.50% against the consensus estimate of $0.80 [1] - The reported revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.44 billion, resulting in a surprise of -5.51% [1] Financial Performance - Brand Volume for the consolidated segment was 15.55 million, below the average estimate of 16.52 million [4] - Brand Volumes in the Americas reached 11.93 million, compared to the average estimate of 12.42 million [4] - Brand Volumes for EMEA & APAC were 3.62 million, lower than the average estimate of 3.82 million [4] - Net Sales in the Americas were $1.88 billion, missing the average estimate of $1.96 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of -12.3% [4] - Net Sales for EMEA & APAC were $427.30 million, below the average estimate of $451.89 million, reflecting a -6% year-over-year change [4] - Net Sales for Unallocated & Eliminations showed a loss of -$5 million, compared to an estimated loss of -$4.13 million, but this represented a +35.1% change year-over-year [4] Stock Performance - Molson Coors shares have returned -6.2% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +11.3% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Company Overview - Proactive is a publisher that provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The news team operates from key finance and investing hubs, including London, New York, Toronto, Vancouver, Sydney, and Perth [2] Expertise and Focus Areas - The company specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - Proactive delivers news and insights across various sectors, including biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging digital and EV technologies [3] Technology Adoption - Proactive is recognized for its forward-looking approach and enthusiastic adoption of technology to enhance workflows [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring that all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net sales revenue decreased by 10.4% compared to the prior year [14] - Underlying pretax income fell by 49.5% [14] - Underlying earnings per share declined by 47.4% [14] - U.S. financial volume decreased by 15.7%, lagging behind U.S. brand volume which was down 8.8% [15] - Net sales revenue per hectoliter in The Americas increased by 4.8% [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. experienced significant volume performance challenges, with expected shipment headwinds and one-time transition fees related to Fever Tree impacting results [10][14] - In EMEA and APAC, financial volume was down 9.7% due to soft industry demand [20] - The addition of Fever Tree in the U.S. is showing early positive signs, contributing to net sales revenue per hectoliter growth [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell by nearly 20 percentage points since the beginning of the year, and GDP turned negative for the first quarter [14] - The beer industry is facing macroeconomic pressures, impacting consumer consumption behavior [8][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on premiumizing its portfolio and strengthening core power brands [12][38] - Adjustments to capital expenditure plans are being made to ensure prudent use of free cash flow [13] - The company aims to navigate short-term challenges while supporting medium and long-term growth objectives [12][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the macroeconomic uncertainties and their impact on performance, updating guidance for the full year to reflect a low single-digit net sales revenue decline [14][50] - Despite challenges, management remains confident in the long-term growth algorithm and the strength of core brands [11][38] Other Important Information - The company plans to return cash to shareholders while investing in high-priority growth initiatives [44][56] - Management announced the intention of the CEO to retire at the end of the year, emphasizing continuity in business operations during the transition [57] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What has changed since the start of the year regarding the U.S. market? - Management indicated that the U.S. market is slower than expected, with macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer confidence and demand [61][64] Question: Are there any updates on market share retention? - Management confirmed that they have retained almost all share gained in 2023, with core brands showing strong performance [72][74] Question: What are the expectations for the beer category growth for the rest of the year? - Management expects the industry to improve from the current trend line, with no ongoing consistent decline anticipated [65][84] Question: How is the company addressing cost inflation and gross margins? - Management noted that while underlying COGS per hectoliter is expected to increase due to inflation, cost savings and efficiencies are being realized [90][95] Question: What is the impact of tariffs on input costs? - Management stated that the impact from known tariffs is expected to be immaterial, as most direct materials are sourced domestically [86][87]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net sales revenue decreased by 10.4% compared to the prior year [13] - Underlying pretax income fell by 49.5% [13] - Underlying earnings per share declined by 47.4% [13] - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped nearly 20 percentage points since the beginning of the year [12] - The company updated its full-year guidance to expect a low single-digit net sales revenue decline, a low single-digit underlying pretax income decline, and a low single-digit underlying earnings per share growth [13][50] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. financial volume decreased by 15.7%, lagging behind U.S. brand volume, which was down 8.8% [14] - Net sales revenue per hectoliter in The Americas increased by 4.8% due to favorable net pricing growth and mix benefits [19] - EMEA and APAC financial volume decreased by 9.7% due to soft industry demand, but net sales revenue per hectoliter grew by 5.4% [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The beer industry faced significant macroeconomic pressures impacting consumer consumption behavior [7] - The competitive landscape in EMEA and APAC has intensified, with increased promotional intensity across channels [104] - The U.S. market is experiencing slower industry trends than expected, with a forecast of improvement in the latter half of the year [62][67] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on premiumizing its portfolio and strengthening core power brands [11][37] - Adjustments to capital expenditure plans are being made to prioritize high-growth initiatives while returning cash to shareholders [12][56] - The company aims to navigate short-term challenges while supporting long-term growth objectives [36][37] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the volatility in the global macroeconomic environment and its impact on consumer confidence and consumption trends [7][44] - The company remains committed to its long-term growth algorithm despite near-term challenges [11][37] - Management expressed confidence in the continued strengthening of core brands and the potential for future growth [10][21] Other Important Information - The company invested $88 million for an 8.5% equity stake in Fever Tree Drinks PLC and returned nearly $160 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [20][43] - The company has executed over 40% of its share repurchase program within the first six quarters since its announcement [21][43] Q&A Session Summary Question: What has changed since the start of the year regarding the U.S. market? - Management indicated that the macroeconomic conditions were unexpected and have impacted consumer confidence and demand, leading to a slower industry performance than anticipated [62][64] Question: Are there concerns about losing market share? - Management confirmed that they have retained almost all of the share gained in 2023, with core brands showing strong performance and shelf space gains [72][73] Question: What are the expectations for the beer category growth? - Management noted that the softness in the industry is macro-driven and expects a return to more typical growth trends as the year progresses [100][101] Question: Can you elaborate on the competitive landscape in EMEA and APAC? - Management described the competitive pressures in the UK and Central and Eastern Europe, highlighting the need for a value-over-volume strategy and increased promotional activities [104][106]

Financial Performance - Net sales for Q1 2025 were $2,304.1 million, a decrease of 11.3% compared to $2,596.4 million in Q1 2024[19] - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was $850.9 million, down 11.7% from $963.5 million in Q1 2024[19] - Net income attributable to Molson Coors Beverage Company for Q1 2025 was $121.0 million, a decline of 41.8% from $207.8 million in Q1 2024[19] - Basic earnings per share for Q1 2025 were $0.60, compared to $0.98 in Q1 2024, reflecting a 38.8% decrease[19] - The company reported an income (loss) before income taxes of $156.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $265.4 million for the same period in 2024[102] - Operating income decreased by 40.7% to $186.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $314.3 million in the prior year[114] - The company reported a loss before income taxes of $44.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, an increase of 74.5% compared to the prior year[142] - Income before income taxes declined by 34.7% for the three months ended March 31, 2025, primarily due to lower financial volumes and cost inflation related to materials and manufacturing expenses[136] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $412.7 million from $969.3 million at the end of 2024, a decline of 57.5%[23] - Net cash used in operating activities for Q1 2025 was $(90.7) million, compared to $25.4 million in Q1 2024[25] - The company reported a net positive cash position of $31.1 million from bank overdrafts and cash as of March 31, 2025, down from $46.0 million as of December 31, 2024[73] - Net cash used in investing activities increased to $341.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, primarily due to investments in Fevertree Drinks plc and the acquisition of Fevertree USA, Inc.[151] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of March 31, 2025, were $25,930.5 million, slightly down from $26,064.3 million at the end of 2024[23] - Total liabilities decreased to $12,478.7 million as of March 31, 2025, from $12,611.6 million at the end of 2024[23] - As of March 31, 2025, total long-term debt was $6,154.6 million, an increase from $6,113.9 million as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 0.67%[72] - Total current assets decreased to $1,601.7 million from $1,859.8 million as of December 31, 2024[174] - The total noncurrent assets increased slightly to $24,007.5 million from $23,958.2 million as of December 31, 2024[174] Shareholder Returns - The company paid dividends of $99.2 million in Q1 2025, slightly up from $96.8 million in Q1 2024[25] - The company declared dividends of $0.47 per share on February 12, 2025, compared to $0.44 per share declared during the same period in 2024[38] - The company repurchased a total of 1,036,630 shares of Class B common stock during the three months ended March 31, 2025, at an average price of $57.47 per share[191] - The total approximate dollar value of shares that may yet be purchased under the repurchase program is $1,151,367,074[191] - The Board approved a share repurchase program of up to $2.0 billion for Class B common stock, with an expected term of five years[191] Investments and Acquisitions - An investment of $88.1 million was made in Fevertree Drinks plc, aligning with the company's strategy to expand beyond the beer aisle[48] - The investment in Fevertree Drinks plc was recorded at a fair value of $113.8 million as of March 31, 2025, after an initial investment of $88.1 million[57] - The company obtained exclusive rights to produce, market, and sell Fever-Tree products in the U.S. effective February 1, 2025, aligning with its strategy to expand beyond the beer aisle[110] Market and Operational Insights - The company operates in two segments: the Americas and EMEA&APAC, with operations in various countries including the U.S., Canada, and several European and Asian markets[32] - Financial volume decreased by 14.3% to 15.409 million hectoliters for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to 17.974 million hectoliters in the prior year[114] - The Americas segment's net sales for the three months ended March 31, 2025, were $1,881.8 million, down from $2,145.4 million for the same period in 2024[102] - The Americas segment net sales decreased by 12.3% to $1,881.8 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $2,145.4 million in the prior year[132] Compliance and Legal Matters - The company was in compliance with all debt covenants and financial ratios as of March 31, 2025[79] - The company has an accrued contingent liability of $9.8 million related to litigation and environmental issues, down from $71.1 million as of December 31, 2024[89] - The company paid $60.6 million on January 29, 2025, to resolve a trademark infringement lawsuit filed by Stone Brewing Company[90] Miscellaneous - The company recognized share-based compensation expense of $11.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $12.8 million for the same period in 2024[43] - The effective tax rate for the three months ended March 31, 2025, remained flat at 21% compared to the prior year[87] - The company incurred $180.3 million in depreciation and amortization for the three months ended March 31, 2025[103]

Group 1: Earnings Performance - Molson Coors Brewing reported quarterly earnings of $0.50 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.80 per share, and down from $0.95 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -37.50% [1] - The company posted revenues of $2.3 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.51%, and down from $2.6 billion year-over-year [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - Molson Coors shares have lost about 0.8% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has declined by -4.3% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $2.04 on revenues of $3.25 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.35 on revenues of $11.64 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Beverages - Alcohol industry, to which Molson Coors belongs, is currently in the bottom 42% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that investors should monitor these revisions closely [5]

FY 2025 RESULTS & OUTLOOK Q1 FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS & OTHER INFORMATION This presentation includes "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the U.S. federal securities laws. Generally, the words "expects," "intend," "goals," "plans," "believes," "continues," "may," "anticipate," "seek," "estimate," "outlook," "trends," "future benefits," "potential," "projects," "strategies," "implies," and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. St ...