这一次不一样？美军“最早本周末打击伊朗”，油价会如何？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the escalating tensions between the US and Iran, leading to a significant increase in oil prices due to potential military actions [1][3] - The US military has assembled the largest air force presence in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq War, with operations expected to last several days to weeks [3][4] - Oil prices have surged, with WTI crude oil rising by 5% to $65.04 per barrel, and various scenarios predicting further increases based on potential disruptions to Iranian oil exports [1][7] Group 2 - Four main scenarios are being assessed regarding oil supply disruptions: 1. A blockade of Iranian oil exports could disrupt up to 1.6 million barrels per day, potentially raising prices by $10-12 [7] 2. Iranian interference in oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz could affect up to 18 million barrels per day, pushing prices above $90 [8] 3. Direct attacks on Iranian oil facilities could lead to prices exceeding $100 due to long-term supply impacts [8] 4. Iranian attacks on Gulf oil facilities could result in historic price spikes above $130 [8] - Market skepticism exists regarding the likelihood of military action by the Trump administration, especially in an election year where domestic oil prices are a concern [9]