马年投资锦囊｜融通基金李进：三大驱动因素持续发力，科技创新、刺激内需两大方向有望受到青睐

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is entering a new development stage in 2026, with A-shares showing signs of a "spring rally" driven by three main factors: policy direction, liquidity environment, and industry trends [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a neutral to slightly hot sentiment, with growth sectors still having low valuations [2]. - The upward trend in the stock market is expected to continue, supported by favorable policies, a loose liquidity environment, and ongoing industry trends [2]. - Key macroeconomic observations include the importance of policy guidance and liquidity trends, which are crucial for stock market valuations [2]. Group 2: Policy and Liquidity - Both domestic and international policies are supportive of the stock market, which is seen as a vital tool for boosting consumption and restoring consumer confidence [2]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates to around 3% in 2026, while domestic liquidity remains ample with potential for rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Two main industry directions benefiting from policy support are technological innovation and stimulating domestic demand [3]. - The AI sector is highlighted as a core area of competition, with significant investments expected to drive demand across the computing power supply chain, including GPUs and storage [3][4]. - The development rhythm in the industry shows a clear pattern of "hardware leading, applications following," with AI applications entering a rapid growth phase [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the AI sector are primarily focused on computing power, with a need to monitor downstream demand growth and capital expenditure trends [5]. - Specific segments within the computing power direction, such as raw materials and chips, are expected to have significant performance potential [5]. - The second key area for stimulating domestic demand includes opportunities in consumer sectors, particularly in the real estate market, where signs of recovery are emerging [6]. Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector - The outlook for the consumer and innovative pharmaceutical sectors is cautiously optimistic, with valuations having adjusted and entering a more favorable investment zone [6]. - Investors are encouraged to seek innovative pharmaceutical companies with global competitiveness, especially those with strong product offerings and positive sales trends [6].