【NIFD季报】美元指数走势变数加大 人民币有望温和升值——2025年年

Core Insights - The report discusses the fluctuations in the US dollar index and the potential for a moderate appreciation of the Chinese yuan, projecting the yuan's exchange rate against the dollar to fluctuate between 6.7 and 7.1 in 2026 [2][50]. Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview - From December 31, 2024, to February 4, 2026, the US dollar index depreciated by 10%, from 108.48 to 97.65 [16][10]. - Major currencies globally appreciated against the dollar, with the Swedish krona, Swiss franc, euro, British pound, Canadian dollar, and Japanese yen appreciating by 18.7%, 14.3%, 14%, 9.1%, 5.0%, and 0.2% respectively [16][10]. US Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index is expected to maintain a slow downward trend in 2026, projected to fluctuate between 93 and 100 [20][26]. - The depreciation in 2025 was influenced by multiple factors, including new trade tariffs, the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, and rising risks associated with US Treasury credit and liquidity [20][24]. Euro Exchange Rate Analysis - The euro appreciated by 14% against the dollar from December 31, 2024, to February 4, 2026, with the exchange rate moving from 1.0353 to 1.1806 [32][10]. - The euro's appreciation exceeded fundamental support, and it is expected to exhibit two-way fluctuations in 2026 [32][10]. Japanese Yen Exchange Rate Analysis - The dollar to yen exchange rate showed a V-shaped trend, with the yen depreciating by 11.4% from April 21, 2025, to February 4, 2026 [35][10]. - The yen's fundamental support is expected to remain weak in 2026, with potential for appreciation if internal policies improve and external conditions stabilize [35][41]. Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate Analysis - The yuan appreciated by 3.3% against the dollar from December 31, 2024, to February 4, 2026, with the middle rate moving from 7.1884 to 6.9533 [43][10]. - The yuan's exchange rate is supported by a weak dollar index, domestic economic policies, and a stable current account surplus, with expectations for moderate appreciation in 2026 [45][47].