对于伊朗和油价，特朗普是“自信过头”还是“姿态做足”？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that the historical performance of oil prices during past military actions may not predict future outcomes, particularly regarding potential U.S. military actions against Iran [1][2] - U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette's optimism about oil price stability is based on the historical context of the "12-day war" in June 2025, where oil prices only experienced temporary fluctuations [2] - The U.S. has a record high shale oil production and has rebuilt diplomatic ties with Gulf oil-producing countries, providing a broader strategic buffer compared to previous administrations [5] Group 2 - The concept of "war premium," which refers to the risk premium injected into energy markets due to Middle Eastern conflicts, has been shrinking due to several structural factors [6] - Key factors contributing to this resilience include the high and rising U.S. oil production, clear policy measures from Washington to prevent supply disruptions, and the unexpected recovery capacity of oil-producing countries [6] - The evolution of market mechanisms, such as enhanced liquidity in oil options markets and the availability of commercial satellite imagery, has reduced the impact of conflict-related uncertainties on pricing [6][7] Group 3 - There is a concern that the White House may be misjudging the situation, mistaking resilience for immunity in the oil market, which could lead to overconfidence in the face of potential Iranian retaliation [8] - If the information warfare strategy misfires, it could result in decision-makers being swayed by overly optimistic narratives, leading to a blind spot regarding alternative scenarios [9]