中东局势紧张之际通胀担忧升温 美债恐创一个月来最长连跌纪录

Group 1 - The rising tensions between the US and Iran are driving up oil prices, which raises concerns about inflation, leading to a prolonged decline in US Treasury bonds [1] - The US 10-year Treasury yield has increased for three consecutive days, rising by 1 basis point to 4.09% [1] - Oil prices continued to rise on Thursday, extending gains from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The US military is reportedly prepared to launch military strikes against Iran as early as this weekend, although President Trump has not made a final decision [4] - The US has significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East, including deploying the largest aerial force in the region since the 2003 Iraq War [4] - Strategist Evelyn Gomez-Lichiti from Mizuho International suggests that a long-term US-led action aimed at regime change could have a substantial and lasting impact on energy markets, challenging the narrative of declining inflation [4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a divergence among officials regarding future monetary policy direction, with some suggesting potential rate cuts if inflation decreases as expected [5] - Some officials believe that rates should remain on hold until there is evidence of inflation returning to normal, while others do not rule out the possibility of future rate hikes [5] - The market has reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts, with the probability of a third cut this year now at approximately 25%, down from 50% the previous week [5]