Carvana stock slips as profit metric misses the mark, outlook vague

Core Viewpoint - Carvana's stock experienced a decline following the release of mixed fourth-quarter results, with significant revenue growth but profits falling short of expectations [1][2]. Financial Performance - Carvana reported fourth-quarter revenue of $5.60 billion, exceeding the estimated $5.27 billion, marking a 58% increase year-over-year [1]. - Retail units sold reached 163,522, surpassing the estimated 157,226, also reflecting a 58% increase [1]. - Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $511 million, below the expected $535.7 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.1%, missing the 10.4% estimate [2]. Market Reaction - Following the results, Carvana's shares fell by 3% in early trading and had previously dropped as much as 20% in after-hours trading [2]. - Analysts have mixed reactions, with some suggesting to maintain positions in the stock despite the volatility [5][6]. Future Outlook - Carvana anticipates significant growth in retail units sold and adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2026, with expectations of sequential increases in Q1 2026, assuming stable market conditions [3]. - The company did not provide specific estimates for Q1 results, leading to uncertainty among investors [2]. Cost Considerations - The fourth-quarter results were affected by higher reconditioning costs for vehicles, with expectations of continued elevated costs in Q1, although higher profit per unit is projected [4]. Strategic Positioning - Carvana's CEO emphasized the company's growth trajectory, aiming to sell 3 million cars annually with adjusted EBITDA margins of 13.5% by 2030-2035 [5]. - Analysts noted the company's strategy of prioritizing market share over margin expansion, which may influence investor sentiment [6]. Controversies - Carvana's stock faced pressure earlier in the year due to allegations from short seller Gotham City Research, claiming the company overstated earnings by not fully disclosing benefits received from DriveTime, potentially inflating earnings by about $1 billion for 2023 and 2024 [7].