非成员想踢走中国？德国拿90%关税当诱饵，这招“反客为主”简直是在太岁头上动土！

Core Viewpoint - Germany's recent diplomatic maneuvering to exclude China from BRICS reflects a strategic shift towards "value-based diplomacy," aiming to align with countries like India and Brazil while sidelining China and Russia [3][6]. Group 1: Germany's Strategy - The new German government is committed to "value-based diplomacy," which translates to selective engagement based on perceived democratic values [3]. - Germany's economic dependence on China is significant, with major companies like Volkswagen and BASF heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing [3][4]. - Germany perceives India and Brazil as potential alternatives to China, viewing them as "democratic allies" that could be drawn away from BRICS [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Leverage - Germany holds a strong economic card with the recent EU-India free trade agreement, which aims to eliminate tariffs on over 90% of goods, benefiting Indian exports significantly [4]. - The G4 alliance, including Germany, Japan, India, and Brazil, is pushing for reforms in the UN Security Council, appealing to India and Brazil's aspirations for greater global influence [4]. Group 3: China's Dominance - China's GDP accounts for 60% to 70% of the BRICS nations, highlighting its central role in the group and its influence over the New Development Bank [5]. - China is the largest trading partner for over 120 countries, including India and Brazil, making it indispensable for their economic survival and growth [5]. - The trade volumes between China and both India and Brazil are substantial, with China-India trade exceeding $100 billion and China-Brazil trade surpassing $150 billion in 2023 [5]. Group 4: Misjudgment of Dynamics - Germany's attempts to create divisions within BRICS reflect a misunderstanding of the group's foundational purpose, which is to provide a platform for the Global South outside Western dominance [6]. - The notion that India and Brazil would abandon their ties with China for limited benefits from Germany is seen as unrealistic, given the deep-rooted economic interdependencies [6].