7000多万空置房够3亿人住，“房价如葱”能否得到应验？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is entering a deep reshuffling phase rather than experiencing a "full carnival" as some market voices suggest for 2026, indicating a significant shift in the industry dynamics [2] Group 1: Market Conditions - There are over 70 million vacant homes in China, which could accommodate approximately 300 million people based on an average of 35-40 square meters per person and 100 square meters per unit, suggesting an oversupply and a return to the essence of housing as a living space rather than an investment [3] - The overall national housing prices are weakening, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, with a net outflow of 3.12 million people from these cities in 2025, leading to prolonged inventory clearance cycles exceeding 30 months [3][4] - In some cities, even a 40% price reduction on a property does not attract buyers, indicating a severe imbalance in the real estate market [4] Group 2: Regional Disparities - The vacancy rate in first-tier cities is only 5-7%, and these markets have not been significantly affected by the overall downturn, with record high prices such as 244,000 yuan per square meter in Shenzhen [3][4] - In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities have vacancy rates of 20-25%, with many vacant homes located in less desirable areas, contributing to the market imbalance [4] Group 3: Industry Transformation - The real estate industry is transitioning from "high-speed growth" to "high-quality development," with a focus on quality competition rather than mere expansion, and new trends such as smart construction and green buildings emerging [4][5] - The predictions made by industry leaders like Jack Ma are being validated, emphasizing the need for the real estate sector to return to its fundamental role of providing housing rather than serving as a wealth-accumulating tool [5]