首席展望｜嘉实基金方晗：马年看好AI扩散、供需改善及顺周期修复主线

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a positive outlook for China's economy in 2026, with foreign investment banks recommending increased allocations to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, reflecting confidence in China's economic transformation and growth prospects [1]. Market Consensus - Two major consensus points for 2026 are identified: the continuation of a structural market trend and a focus on the AI technology revolution as the primary investment theme [5][6]. - The structural market trend is supported by favorable policy environments, potential for increased retail investment, and a recovery in corporate earnings [5]. - The AI technology revolution is expected to drive significant investment opportunities across various sectors, particularly in infrastructure and application breakthroughs [5][6]. Core Divergences - Three key divergences in the market are highlighted: 1. Whether valuation expansion will be limited or broken by the historical AI technology revolution [6]. 2. The impact of rising commodity prices on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [7]. 3. The potential reallocation of household savings into stock assets due to the repricing of bank deposits [8]. Investment Themes - Three main investment themes for 2026 are proposed: 1. The diffusion of new technology, particularly AI, which is expected to create opportunities in sectors like storage, semiconductors, and energy [9]. 2. Industries experiencing stable demand and reduced supply pressures, such as lithium batteries, military, offshore wind, and dairy products [10]. 3. High-risk, cyclical assets that are likely to recover as the economy improves, including real estate, food and beverage, and discretionary consumption [10].